Winners and losers of the US-Saudi nuclear deal

A new nuclear deal between the United States and Saudi Arabia is nothing short of a major victory for the kingdom, which has secured a long-sought ambition to establish its own civilian nuclear programme.

But not everyone in the Middle East will be celebrating.

Here is a rundown of those who will likely gain and those who will be left out from the latest agreement to rattle the region.

- Who are the winners? -

The deal is a diplomatic and economic triumph for the kingdom's de-facto leader Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

The agreement comes on the heels of another watershed deal that saw Prince Mohammed secure the purchase of F-35 fighter jets along with the kingdom being named a major non-NATO ally during a visit to the White House in November.

Embracing nuclear technology is also in line with Saudi policy to address the rapid increase in energy demand in the kingdom while reducing "the reliance on hydrocarbons in order to use petroleum for higher value purposes and export", according to the energy ministry.

"For Saudi Arabia, this is a landmark achievement by any measure," Hesham Alghannam, a Saudi security analyst and researcher, told AFP.

"The 30-year agreement could allow the kingdom to build a uranium enrichment facility on its soil following a joint US-Saudi feasibility study, a capability that three consecutive US administrations refused to extend."

If approved by Congress, the deal would likely provide an economic windfall for US energy companies and further undergird Riyadh's ironclad ties with the US.

"The alternative was not a Saudi Arabia without nuclear ambitions, it was a Saudi nuclear programme anchored in Russian or Chinese supply chains, with no American visibility, no commercial foothold for Westinghouse and no structural leverage," said Alghannam.

- Who are the losers? -

And while the actual text of the deal has yet to be released, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio insisted on Thursday that appropriate safeguards would be cemented in the agreement.

"We will ensure that in order to get congressional approval, we're going to need to have those safeguards in place," Rubio said on the sidelines of a summit in Manila.

But there is likely to be harsh criticism of the agreement, along with worries that the move could further destabilise a region already upended by years of war.

Israel for one is likely to be upset.

For years, the US had sought to condition a nuclear deal and a US-Saudi defence pact on normalisation with Israel.

Now, Saudi Arabia has managed to get its nuclear agreement despite bringing normalisation talks to a grinding halt in the aftermath of the Gaza war.

For Allison Minor, director of the Project for Middle East Integration at the Atlantic Council, Washington is also sending a warning to Tehran as negotiations stall, while rewarding a major ally that has grown wary of US security assurances.

"By keeping the door open for uranium enrichment inside Saudi Arabia, the nuclear deal sends a powerful message to Tehran," she said.

"We should read the announcement as part of Riyadh's broader strategy to managing the shockwaves of the Iran war."

The agreement will also likely seek to prevent Chinese and Russian companies from helping the kingdom build its nuclear programme, while ensuring that the US maintains oversight of Saudi Arabia's use of sensitive nuclear technology.

- What does it mean for the region? -

For decades, policymakers have worried about the potential fallout from the spread of nuclear technology and the weaponisation of such programmes, such as spurring arms races in places like the Middle East.

The ongoing war between the US and Iran was born in part from concerns over the evolution of Tehran's own nuclear programme.

"US giving Saudi the right to enrich has huge implications, for the region and particularly for Iran, which has argued for decades that it reserves the right to enrich" based on its treaty obligations, wrote Gregory Brew, a senior analyst with Eurasia Group.

A "US deal with Saudi essentially stalls on that point, which also means the US doesn't need to grapple with the potentially thorny implications of what Saudi enrichment might mean for the Iran file".

According to US media reports, the agreement would potentially allow Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium on its own soil.

This provision could ruffle feathers next door in the United Arab Emirates, where the UAE's own nuclear agreement with Washington does not allow for such concessions.

The new Saudi deal could see Abu Dhabi seek to renegotiate its agreement, arguing for a similar provision regarding enrichment.

The UAE's nuclear agreement with the US allows it to seek amendments should Washington grant any other country in the Middle East a more favourable deal.