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Analysis: Violence up in India's northeast

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by Kushal Jeena
New Delhi (UPI) Mar 27, 2008
An Indian Interior Ministry status report on internal security acknowledged that despite a massive anti-insurgency offensive, there was a sharp increase in overall violence in the country's restive northeast in 2007 over the previous year.

The report presented in Parliament during the current budget session said the security situation in the region has continued to worsen for the past five years. Among the seven states in the northeast, Assam and Manipur witnessed the worst militancy-related violence.

India's northeast is home to seven states and a dozen-odd ethnic groups all fighting for independent homelands. Their location -- bordering Bangladesh and Myanmar -- is a cause of concern for India as rebels move their bases from India across the porous borders.

"Militant groups operating in various states of the northeast have usually found refuge in neighboring countries like Bangladesh and Myanmar," said Kalyan Barooah, an expert on insurgency in the region.

Fencing along the 2,500-mile border with Bangladesh, suggested as a remedy to the problem, is incomplete, leaving ample scope for easy entry and exit by militants. Similarly, many militant groups operating in Assam, Nagaland and Manipur have taken shelter in Myanmar.

"While in Assam 216 ULFA cadres were neutralized and another 205 surrendered in stepped-up counterinsurgency operations, Manipur continues to be affected by insurgent activities of a large number of militant outfits divided on ethnic lines," the status paper said.

Assam-based United Liberation Front of Assam, along with Karbi Longri National Liberation Front and Dima Halam Daoga, accounts for the bulk of the violence in Assam, the report said.

The report said last year there were 474 incidents of insurgency-related violence resulting in the killing of 27 security forces and 287 civilians. The corresponding figures for 2006 were 413 incidents in which 32 security personnel and 164 civilians were killed. There has been a marked increase -- 200 percent -- of violence against Hindi-speaking migrant workers in the state.

The Interior Ministry said Arunachal Pradesh state also witnessed an increase in incidents in 2007 compared with the preceding year with the districts of Tirap, Changlong and Lohit registering the bulk of violence.

In Nagaland, relative decline in inter-factional clashes between the two factions of NSCN reflected on the overall security situation, as there was some decline in violence in 2007. Mizoram and Sikkim remained largely peaceful, and violence in Meghalaya was low.

The number of violent incidents in the northeastern states increased from 1,332 in 2003 to 1,489 in 2007. Civilian casualties recorded in 2003 were 494, 414 in 2004, 393 in 2005, 309 in 2006 and 498 in 2007. However, the number of security forces killed in action and extremists killed decreased between 2003 and 2007.

In Manipur, there were 584 incidents resulting in the death of 39 security personnel and 130 civilians. The corresponding figures for 2006 were 498 incidents and death of 28 security personnel and 96 civilians. Violence by ethnic Meitei groups escalated by 38 percent and largely accounted for the increased violence in the state. There was a decline in civilian casualties and increased neutralization of militants in counterinsurgency operations.

In Nagaland, 272 incidents were reported in 2007, resulting in the deaths of 44 civilians. The corresponding figures for 2006 were 309 incidents and 29 civilian casualties. Violence in the state is on the rise even as the government is engaged in holding talks with the insurgent National Socialist Council of Nagaland. The status paper said a decline in the insurgent violence has been registered in Nagaland as some members of the NSCN have shifted to designated camps.

"Notwithstanding the government's efforts in bringing all militant outfits to the negotiating table, the region continues to remain disturbed," said Ajai Sahani, executive director of the Institute of Conflict Management, a non-governmental think tank that deals with issues relating to armed conflict.

Peace negotiations launched by the government to restore normalcy in the poverty-stricken area have failed to get to the core issues of the conflict.

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