However, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute online Arms Transfers Database, updated to March 31 with information on deliveries and orders made in 2007, shows a 63-percent drop in Russian deliveries of major conventional weapons to China -- to their lowest levels since 1998 -- contributing to a 29-percent reduction in overall Russian exports for 2007 in comparison with 2006. Further, there are no outstanding Chinese orders with Russia for big-ticket items such as ships or advanced combat aircraft.

According to the SIPRI Arms Transfer Database, Russia has delivered major conventional weapons to more than 70 states and other end-users since 1992. These transfers account for 19 percent of global arms exports, making Russia the second-largest arms exporter -- behind the United States -- for this period.

Between 1999 and 2006 SIPRI recorded year-on-year growth in the volume of Russian exports of major conventional weapons, leading to an increase in Russia's share of international arms exports to 26 percent.

This increase has been largely due to orders from China and India. Since the turn of the millennium, these two countries have imported a range of major conventional weapons from Russia -- submarines, aircraft carriers, long-range strike, tanker and transport aircraft, and ship-launched land-attack missiles -- to demonstrate their regional power status and power projection capabilities.

In 2007 China remained the single largest recipient of Russian weapons, accounting for 28 percent of deliveries -- down from 54 percent in 2006 -- but India was not far behind with a share of 20 percent -- up from 15 percent.

Data on arms deliveries can fluctuate sharply from year to year because the delivery of ships and advanced combat aircraft can significantly boost the volume of deliveries in a particular year.

For example, the fact that deliveries to China were 63 percent lower in 2007 than 2006 is better understood by comparing the different military equipment delivered in these two years.

In 2006 and 2007 Russia delivered 12 Mi-17 helicopters, radars for Chinese-produced frigates and destroyers, aircraft engines for Chinese-produced combat aircraft, and a range of air-to-air, anti-aircraft, anti-tank and anti-ship missiles. China received an estimated 17 J-11 combat aircraft, built from Su-27SK kits, in 2006, compared with an estimated 11 J-11s in 2007. Most significantly, however, a Sovremenny destroyer and two kilo-class submarines were delivered in 2006, while no ships or submarines were delivered in 2007.

A large drop in delivery volumes in 2007 should not in itself be regarded as a signal of a significant change in supplier-recipient relations between Russia and China. Arguably of greater significance for the future of the relationship are the facts that the usually biannual Sino-Russian intergovernmental meetings on military-technical cooperation did not occur in 2007, and Russia does not have any Chinese orders for ships or advanced combat aircraft.

Next: Why Russia fears China's reverse-engineering capabilities

(Paul Holtom is a researcher for the Arms Transfer Project of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. This article is reprinted by permission of RIA Novosti. The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.)

(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)

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