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Despite tests, Iran missile path uncertain: analysts

Iran to 'cut off hands' of attacker: Ahmadinejad
Iran would "cut off the hands" of any enemy that attacked the country, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad warned on Sunday, amid increasing tensions with the West after recent missile tests. "Before the enemies touch the trigger, Iran's armed forces will cut off their hands," Ahmadinejad said, according to the state-run IRNA news agency. His comments came after Iran intensified tensions in the nuclear standoff by conducting two days of missile tests, which included the firing of a missile that it says can reach Israel.

"This is only a small part of Iran's defence capabilities and in future we will unveil more of our defence capabilities if it is needed," Ahmadinejad said. The United States and its regional ally Israel have never ruled out a military attack to end Iran's controversial nuclear work, which the West fears could be used to make weapons - a charge vehemently denied by Iran. There has been concern an attack against Iran could be imminent after it emerged Israel had carried out manoeuvres in Greece that were effectively dry runs for a potential strike against Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran has always warned of a ferocious response to any attack. A military official said on Saturday that Iran would target "the heart of Israel" and 32 US bases in the event of any attack.

Tehran said on Wednesday that it test-fired its Shahab-3 missile - the longest-range weapon in its arsenal - and eight other missiles. It said it fired more missiles on Thursday in land manouevres at night and naval war games by day. But diplomatic efforts to end the crisis have also continued, with world powers proposing a package offering Tehran technological incentives if it suspends sensitive uranium enrichment. Iran's nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili is to meet EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana - who leads the talks on behalf of world powers - in Geneva on July 19 in their latest effort to break the deadlock, Iranian officials said. Hopes of a breakthrough rose in recent weeks after Ali Akbar Velayati, the top foreign policy advisor to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said it would be in Iran's interests to accept the package. But Ahmadinejad on Sunday bluntly said that Velayati "has no involvement in nuclear issue decision making". "Mr Velayati is an esteemed person. He has opinions and he states his opinion. Everyone in the Islamic Republic of Iran is free to state their opinion."

by Staff Writers
Washington (AFP) July 11, 2008
The United States used Iran's display of missile power this week as a dramatic illustration of the need for a proposed extension of the US missile defense system into Europe.

US Defense Secretary Robert Gates told reporters it should put to rest Russia's doubts that it would be 10 to 20 years before Iran would have longer-range missiles.

"The fact is they've just tested a missile that has pretty extended range," he said Wednesday.

"We've been saying, as we've talked about missile defense in Europe, that there is a real threat. And it seems to me that the test this morning underscores that," he said.

But Pentagon officials acknowledge that the missile defense system proposed for Europe is not configured to intercept even Iran's longest-range missile, the Shahab-3.

Instead, it is designed to go against intermediate range and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) with ranges of more than 3,000 kilometers.

With an advertised range of 2,000 kilometers (1,350 miles), the Shahab-3 can reach parts of southern Europe but poses the greatest threat to points in the Middle East including Israel and US military bases in the region.

Moreover, officials and analysts say the exercises this week in which the Shahab-3 and other shorter range missiles were launched revealed no new strides in Iran's missile programs.

"All these capabilities had been tested before. This appears to be much more for impact on the public than it was an attempt to test these capabilities," said Geoff Morrell, a Pentagon spokesman.

But Pentagon officials argue that the tests are a reminder of the longer term threat posed by Iranian missiles.

The Defense Intelligence Agency estimates that Iran will likely be capable of producing intercontinental ballistic missiles by 2015.

But there are "still quite a few steps they need to take in order to get there," said Peter Crail, an analyst with the Arms Control Association.

"There is no evidence they have a crash program to do that right away. Basically they are taking the steps that are needed to develop their medium range and intermediate capabilities in order to get to that stage," he said.

He said Iran needs to develop the ability to build missiles in stages to get longer ranges needed to threaten Europe or the United States. It also must develop re-entry vehicles capable of surviving the plunge back through the Earth's atmosphere.

There are some signs Iran is moving in that direction.

In February, it fired a probe into space on the back of a Shahab-3 missile, a development that prompted even Russia to say it raised "suspicions" that Iran was seeking a nuclear weapons capability.

In November, Iran said it tested a new missile, the Ashura, with the same 2,000-kilometer (1,250 mile) range as the Shahab-3 but with two stages instead of one.

Iranian officials also claimed it had solid fuel propellant, rather than the liquid fuel used by the Shahab-3, which allows a missile to be readied more quickly.

It was unclear whether the test was successful.

Senior US military officials also have cited an Israeli report that Iran has bought intermediate range missiles under development by North Korea.

The missile was believed to be based on the design of a Soviet SS-N-6 submarine-launched missile with a range of 3,000 kilometers.

The North Koreans were reported to have developed a road-mobile version of the missile.

"We know they are working on a system that will be able to reach Europe. As to when I can't give it to you," a defense official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

But Crail said political as well technical considerations may dictate the pace of Iran's longer range missile programs, which he said have been proceeding in "fits and starts."

While worrisome, medium range missiles limit Iran to its immediate region. Reaching beyond it, will bring down more political pressure, Crail said.

"What we've seen them do is try to develop their programs in a way that won't be too upsetting, too quickly," he said.

A US national intelligence estimate earlier this year found that Iran halted a covert effort in 2003 to develop nuclear weapons for its missiles.

Yet, it has proceeded with an uranium enrichment program in defiance international sanctions, and continues to develop missiles that have little utility except to deliver nuclear weapons.

earlier related report
Iran missile tests prove US missile shield 'not needed': Russia
Iran's recent missile tests showed the limited range of Tehran's arsenal and proved that a planned US missile defence shield in Europe is unnecessary, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Friday.

"The tests in Iran confirm that Iran has missiles with a range of up to 2,000 kilometers and confirm... that a missile defence shield with these parameters is not needed to monitor or react to such threats," he said.

"We believe that any issue related to Iran should be resolved through negotiation, through political-diplomatic means... and not through threats," Lavrov told reporters in Moscow after talks with his Jordanian counterpart.

The Russian minister said the United States could push ahead with its plans to set up a new missile defence system in Europe.

"But these will be unilateral steps at a time when what is needed is collective measures, collective agreements," Lavrov said.

His comments came three days after US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice signed an agreement in Prague formally permitting the United States to set up a high-powered radar in the Czech Republic as part of the new missile shield.

President Dmitry Medvedev said immediately afterwards that Russia was "most distressed" by the US moves, which Moscow says in their current form pose a direct threat to Russian national security.

Moscow said this week it had no choice but to respond to the US missile defence moves with "concrete" military steps of its own, heightening concern about a renewed Washington-Moscow arms race.

The United States rejects Russia's fears about the system, saying it is meant to defend against missile threats from "rogue" states such as Iran and North Korea.

Lavrov's comments came after Iran carried out a series of missile tests this week, ignoring global concern over Tehran's nuclear programme.

Iran on Wednesday test-fired its Shahab-3 long-range missile, which the Islamic republic says can reach Israel and US bases in the Gulf, and eight other more medium-range missiles.

The move sparked major concern in Western governments which say they fear Iran's nuclear drive is aimed at making atomic weapons, a charge that Tehran vehemently denies.

World powers last month presented Iran with a package aimed at ending the five-year-old nuclear crisis, notably offering Tehran technological incentives in exchange for suspending the sensitive process of uranium enrichment.

Lavrov on Friday urged Tehran to accept the latest international incentives, saying they were "sufficiently fully-fledged, deep and contain enough positive stimuli" to respond to Iran's needs and ambitions.

Iran on Friday said its top nuclear negotiator and EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana would hold their next talks on ending the nuclear stand-off on July 19, despite Western anger over Tehran's test-firing of several missiles.

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Real Or Not Iranian Missile Tests Must Stop Demands US
Washington (AFP) July 10, 2008
The United States Thursday cast doubt on the strength of Iran's claims to have test-fired a whole barrage of missiles over two days, and urged Tehran to cease immediately all provocative acts.







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