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OECD indicators point to strong slowdowns in China, India, Russia

Consumer Electronics Association revises holiday forecast
The US Consumer Electronics Association (CEA) on Thursday revised downward its forecast for the fourth quarter of the year, saying sales over the holiday season would remain virtually unchanged from last year. The CEA said fourth-quarter wholesale shipment revenues would increase by 0.1 percent over the same period in 2007. In October, the CEA had forecast 3.5 percent fourth-quarter growth. "New data shows the economy and consumer sentiment remain muted and CEA surveys show overall spending is down this holiday season," the CEA said in a statement. "The revised holiday forecast also reflects new data indicating that holiday shoppers are opting for smaller, less expensive TVs and other CE (consumer electronics) products purchased at discount retailers," the association said. The CEA said mobile phones will see five percent growth in the fourth quarter, a projection revised downward from the October forecast of 11 percent growth. It said discounts on laptops and an increased interest in smaller, lower-priced laptops known as netbooks are impacting the computer category. It projected a year-over-year revenue decline of two percent for the category, down from the earlier estimate of negative one percent growth. "Although CEA certainly took price declines and weakness in consumer demand into consideration, the severity and the speed of declines in these unprecedented times caught everyone off guard," said Jason Oxman, CEA's senior vice president of industry affairs. "Consumer sentiment is improving, but shopper unease this holiday season is creating challenges for all sectors of the economy, including consumer electronics."

China to improve financial support to small businesses: state media
China is to set up institutions dedicated to providing better loan access for small enterprises, which are suffering the most from the global financial crisis, state media reported Saturday. The move is intended to help avoid widespread bankruptcies and lay-offs, the official Xinhua news agency said, quoting the China Banking Regulatory Commission. Small and medium-sized enterprises in China -- labour-intensive and very vulnerable to fluctuations in domestic and external demand -- have been particularly badly hit by the global financial crisis. In the first half of the year, 67,000 such firms shut down and laid off millions of employees, Xinhua said, citing the National Development and Reform Commission. The figure did not include smaller companies with sales of less than 5 million yuan (730,000 dollars), the news agency reported. China's Communist Party, long been obsessed with social stability, has faced a series of high-profile protests over job losses staged recently amid concern over the country's slowing economy. The commission said the institutions would be established by commercial banks as quasi-corporate bodies or subsidiaries that would be run independently, Xinhua said. The institutions were expected to have a system for the provision of bad loans that was separate from their parent banks.
by Staff Writers
Paris (AFP) Dec 5, 2008
The OECD warned on Friday that emerging market powerhouses China, India and Russia faced a sharp fall in economic momentum in the near term, with prospects also weakening in leading industrialised countries.

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said its October composite index of economic indicators points "to a weakening outlook for all major seven economies but compared to last month the outlook has significantly deteriorated in the major non-OECD countries, with China, India and Russia also facing strong slowdowns."

The Group of Seven comprises Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States.

For the 29 OECD members as a whole the October indicator fell by one point compared with the September figure and 5.9 points from October 2007.

The US indicator was down 1.2 points on the month and 6.6 points from October 2007. The comparable declines were 0.9 points and 6.3 in the eurozone and 0.9 points and 3.3 in Japan.

The October indicator for China fell 1.7 points in October from September and 7.0 points on the year.

The comparable declines were 1.1 points and 6.6 in India and 4.0 points and 10.5 points for Russia, the OECD said.

Chinese steel firms post first monthly loss in six years: report
Steel companies in China recorded their first month-on-month loss in six years as the global financial crisis hit domestic exporters, manufacturers and construction firms, state media reported Friday.

Seventy-one large and medium-sized steel companies posted a combined loss of 5.84 billion yuan (853 million dollars) in October, the first monthly loss since 2002, the China Securities Journal reported, citing an industry association.

For the first ten months of the year, the accumulated steel reserves for the 71 firms reached nearly 475 billion yuan, up 50.3 percent from the same period last year, the report said.

Analysts said both figures showed China's steel industry was on the verge of sinking into the red as global economic woes deal hefty blows to Chinese exporters.

China is the world's largest steel producer and became a net steel exporter in 2006.

"China's steel industry is experiencing a fairly difficult time now," Qi Xiangdong, senior official from the China Iron and Steel Industry, told the newspaper.

"But the Chinese government has taken various measures to stimulate the economy... the sector's downward trend should improve in the second quarter next year," Qi said.

China has removed export taxes on 102 items including steel products from December 1 in a bid to shore up exports amid the global economic slowdown.

State media on Friday cited unnamed industry sources as saying China's steel producers and government officials were mulling plans to buy steel products to boost reserves and prop up domestic prices.

Chinese banks' bad loans likely to rise in 2009: state media
A Bank of China official warned the number of bad loans on commercial banks' books could rise in 2009 as they face government pressure to lend more to spur economic growth, state media reported Friday.

"Bad loans are very likely to grow because major banks have pledged to aggressively increase new loans," Bank of China vice-president Zhu Min was quoted as saying in the China Securities Journal.

Beijing has relaxed monetary policy as part of measures to cushion the economy during an economic slowdown. Other measures include removing limits on commercial lending and encouraging banks to loan more to help companies.

The central bank announced four interest rate cuts since mid-September, in a signal that it would pull out all the stops to boost slowing growth.

But pessimism over the outlook of China's economy remains despite government efforts, Zhu said. He predicted China's annual economic growth will fall to 4.8 percent in the fourth quarter, down from nine percent in the third quarter.

"With sagging economic growth, banks are indeed facing the problem of non-performing assets next year," Zhu told the newspaper.

However, Zhu said despite the problems accompanying increased bad loans, it would not become a serious threat because Chinese banks have improved their profitability and risk-control.

China's commercial banks had an overall non-performing loan ratio of 5.49 percent at the end of September, down 0.67 percentage point from the beginning of this year, according to China Banking Regulatory Commission figures.

Commercial banks' bad loans totalled 1.27 trillion yuan (185 billion dollars) as of the end of September, down 3.02 billion yuan since the start of 2008, the regulator said previously.

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