After months of prevarication, the Poles stopped increasing the level of military aid they demanded in return for hosting the missiles, while the United States, previously reluctant to exacerbate Moscow's hostility to its European ballistic missile defense plans, agreed that by 2012 it would station a Patriot PAC-3 missile battery in Poland, together with a garrison to support it.

This is not the only unanticipated consequence of the Georgian conflict. In July the Czech government agreed to station a radar missile tracking base -- the other European element of the planned ballistic missile defense system -- 54 miles from the Czech capital of Prague. The immediate reduction in the Russian deliveries of oil to the Czech Republic was widely interpreted in the West as Russia's retaliation against the agreement, despite Russian oil corporation Transneft's declaration that there were technical and commercial reasons for the cut.

The Czech Chamber of Deputies, the main chamber of the Czech Parliament, was initially reluctant to ratify the agreement. However, in the wake of the Georgian conflict, and in response to the threat by the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs when the U.S.-Polish agreement was announced that "Russia will be forced to respond, not only via diplomatic demarches," it is highly likely the Czech Parliament will ratify the agreement without further difficulty.

The conflict also appears to have made members of the U.S.-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which previously were divided on the question of the further expansion of the alliance to include Georgia, more united in adopting a policy aimed at granting it membership sooner rather than later.

Ever since U.S. President George W. Bush revived the plans to develop and deploy ballistic missile defense systems employing Ground-based Mid-course Interceptors that could destroy ICBMs flying over Central Europe, the U.S. administration repeatedly has assured the Russian government that the system is directed not against Russia, but against any ballistic missiles it fears could be launched by the so-called rogue states of Iran or North Korea.

The Russian response has been consistent: The Russian government maintains that the U.S. ballistic missile defense system to be deployed in Central Europe is directed against Russia and that it therefore undermines Russia's security. In practice, it doesn't really matter whether the system is directed against Russia. By responding to the perception that it is, Russian rhetoric and actions produce a self-fulfilling prophecy.

(Part 2: The dangers of a new arms race in Europe)

(Margot Light is an emeritus professor of international relations at the London School of Economics. This article is reprinted by permission of RIA Novosti. The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.)

(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)

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