In February 2006 he announced they coped with thermonuclear reactions. This time he spoke about the most advanced Iranian technologies of the budding Iranian nuclear-enrichment industry. He was referring to the grandiose commissioning of 6,000 IR-2 centrifuges -- Iranian classification -- at the Natanz nuclear facility in Isfahan on the Day of Nuclear Technology.

But how new are these "most advanced technologies"?

The commissioning of IR-2 centrifuges was not a surprise for experts. In the middle of last February Iran gave the International Atomic Energy Agency all the required information about them. Indicatively, a week before the Western media wrote that Iran had decided to install next-generation P-2 centrifuges -- IR-2 in Iranian classification -- at Natanz.

Experts maintain that P-2 centrifuges -- the prototype of the IR-2 -- were used by Pakistan -- hence, the abbreviation P -- and are a copy of a model of German centrifuges from the early 1970s. Its design was stolen from the URENCO international concern by a Pakistani nuclear physicist that became famous after giving it to Iran. His name is A.Q. Khan.

It would be a great exaggeration to put a model from the early 1970s, even if it were German, into the category of today's "most advanced technologies."

Experts note that the Iranian IR-2 version is not in any way superior to the original P-2 model. It is simply cheaper to produce. Western diplomats reported that a new cascade of 300 centrifuges had been mounted at Natanz by early April. But only some of them were upgraded IR-2s, while others were the oldest models -- first generation P-1s.

In this situation, there are grounds to doubt the president-announced capacity of centrifuges and their number, and to ask a general question -- why does Tehran need such bubbles at all?

There are several answers to this question, and the majority of experts agree on one. The Russian Institute of the Middle East cites the opinion of Iranian political analyst Saeed Leylaz. He explains this by the appearance of completely new players in the Iranian political establishment. In an interview with Corriere Della Sera, he observed that the regime of Iranian ayatollahs is gradually leaving the political scene and is being replaced by people with economic and military interests.

Russian expert Vladimir Mesamed speaks about the Islamic Revolutionary Guards, a powerful institution in the Iranian political hierarchy that is rapidly turning into Iran's main economic, military and political force. He believes that as its nominee, Ahmadinejad is fully aware of this trend, and this is why after the recent parliamentary elections on March 14 he immediately announced the cessation of talks with the European Union on the sensitive nuclear issue.

The majority of people in Iran are becoming tired of ambitious projects like the nuclear program. It is too expensive and questionable, and does not guarantee any economic or political dividends for the nation.

The nuclear project, which Ahmadinejad has elevated to the rank of national priority, has to be saved or adjusted without further delay. Judging by everything, neither Ahmadinejad nor his patrons can accept the second option because it is tantamount to acknowledging a failure in domestic and foreign policies. A number of electronic media reported that the authorities had promised to pay $50 to every poor family on the Nuclear Day in order to alleviate the growing discontent on Iranian streets.

For all intents and purposes, Tehran is deliberately exaggerating the importance of the nuclear issue for Iran or simply bluffing in order to conceal economic tensions and political miscalculations.

earlier related report
Outside View: Legitimize Iran opposition
As CIA Director Michael Hayden asserted his belief that Iran is at a minimum leaving the option for a nuclear weapon wide open, is confrontation now becoming an ever growing certainty?

In the eyes of the U.S. administration, there seems little doubt as to Tehran's intentions, as the CIA director becomes the third significant figure in the Bush administration to state what he believes is an intention by Iran to build a nuclear weapon.

In an interview with ABC News last month, Vice President Dick Cheney alleged that Iran was "heavily involved in trying to develop nuclear weapons enrichment, the enrichment of uranium to weapons-grade levels." He most recently visited the Middle East in an attempt to gather further support in isolating Iran.

It is this isolation and the ensuing sanctions that the Iranian government has faced, which has left Hayden clearly worried that Iran may well be on a mission to acquire a nuclear weapon. His argument -- quite a compelling one -- is, "Why would the Iranians be willing to pay the international tariff they appear willing to pay for what they're doing now if they did not have, at a minimum ... the desire to keep the option open to develop a nuclear weapon and, perhaps even more so, that they've already decided to do that?"

Clearly, the Iranian leadership, headed by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has no desire to step back from its nuclear ambitions. The underlying question that then comes to mind is, why would Iran be willing to face such sanctions and international isolation to acquire a nuclear program with solely the intention of civilian use? No answer has ever been forthcoming from the Iranian authorities.

As pressure now grows on Iran over its nuclear weapons program and evidence comes to light over Iranian support for militias in Iraq, the international community heads into a prospect of further confrontation in the region. However, viewing confrontation as a certainty is a very dangerous mindset for the international community to accept.

It is for this reason that the search for a solution to what has been termed the "Iran Crisis" must be continued with greater haste. One option that has found itself back on the table is supporting Iran's opposition movement. The Iranian opposition movement led by the Mujahedeen e Khalq (MEK/PMOI) has gained greater prominence in recent years as it has hit the headlines for exposing Iran's nuclear program as well as Iran's meddling in Iraq.

The PMOI, believed by the regime to be the greatest threat to its existence, has found itself at the top of the agenda in many negotiations with Tehran. From Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's recent trip to Iraq to the nuclear incentives offered by EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana over the years, this Iranian opposition group has found itself used as a political tool to convince Tehran to be a constructive influence on the region.

However, Iran's obsession and fear of this group has been noted by Western politicians as it becomes ever less likely that Tehran can be convinced to adhere to its nuclear obligations. One thing still stands in the way of this group being viewed as the legitimate opposition that could bring about democratic change in Iran. The group was listed as terrorist in the United Kingdom in 2001 in what Jack Straw, MP, later admitted was an act carried out at the behest of Tehran. As foreign secretary, Straw also urged the EU to ban the group.

However, the group's terror listing may well be quashed in the United Kingdom and the EU in coming weeks as the group awaits rulings from the UK Court of Appeal as well as the European Court of Justice. Having succeeded at a branch of the UK High Court in November 2007 and the European Court of First Instance in December 2006, the upcoming judgments are the culmination of a long process to gain legitimacy by the PMOI.

An end to the group's terror listing may well see it become a legitimate opposition group, which will offer the international community the option of internal democratic change. Such an option may well be the only prospect of avoiding further confrontation in the region.

(Pyotr Goncharov is a political commentator for RIA Novosti. This article is reprinted by permission of RIA Novosti. The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.)

(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)

(Mark Williams is a Liberal Democrat Member of Parliament for Ceredigion and shadow Welsh affairs spokesman. Previously he was shadow education minister.)

(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)

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