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Russian show of force complicates Georgia's NATO ambitions

Russia taking precautions against NATO ships
Russia is taking "measures of precaution" against US and NATO warships in the Black Sea but hopes to avoid confrontation, a spokesman for Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said Wednesday. "Certainly some measures of precaution are being taken.... Let's hope we do not see any direct confrontation in that," spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in a conference call with journalists. "It's not a common practice to deliver humanitarian aide using battleships," he said, referring to US aid shipments delivered to Georgia.
by Staff Writers
Brussels (AFP) Aug 27, 2008
Russia's show of force in the Caucasus has vastly complicated Georgia's efforts to join NATO but the military alliance remains determined not to cave in to Moscow, experts say.

NATO allies have rallied behind Tbilisi and called on Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to reverse his decision on Tuesday to recognise two rebel Georgian regions.

But they have been cautious about talking up its membership prospects, even as Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili insists he has received "positive signals" from the West.

The 26 NATO nations are divided over whether bringing Georgia into the alliance would increase stability in a volatile region or feed insecurity by angering a more assertive and increasingly powerful Russia.

But confronting Moscow was always NATO's raison d'etre, and some analysts fear that capitulating now might only embolden Russia to target the southern Ukrainian region of Crimea with similar aggression.

Ukraine has also been promised a place at the alliance's table at some point in the future.

"Russia's clearly upped the ante with its recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia," said Daniel Korski from the European Council on Foreign Relations think-tank.

"But I think the (allies) will agree to keep the membership prospects alive for both Ukraine and Georgia as the alternative would be too much of a capitulation in the face of Russian force."

NATO's founding charter allows for the entry of any European nation -- by unanimous agreement -- which can help further the alliance's aims.

At a summit in April, NATO leaders confirmed that Georgia and Ukraine would be invited in at some stage, and set in swing a monitoring process that could see them offered a place in the membership ante-chamber next year.

Both their candidacies were flawed. But a key condition for Georgia entering the fold lies in the resolution of the frozen conflicts in its rebel regions -- now simmering hot -- and improving its democratic credentials.

Russia's actions this month have therefore greatly complicated matters.

"Although nobody can see Georgia actually becoming a member of the alliance, nobody can abandon this project without appearing to be caving in to Russia," said Jonathan Eyal at the RUSI defence and security group in London.

"The commitment to invite Georgia to join was made; only the timing is now, supposedly, in question."

Despite the urgings of the United States -- NATO's most powerful member and Georgia's biggest backer -- many nations are reluctant to be forced to put their soldiers' lives on the line.

Under Article 5 of the Washington treaty -- invoked for the first time after the September 11, 2001 attacks in New York and Washington -- the allies consider an attack on any one of their number to be an attack on all.

Tomas Valasek, director of policy at the London-based Centre for European Reform, said that for some in NATO "there are some countries who are not worth dying over."

"We should be very careful about who we extend security guarantees to," he said.

At NATO headquarters, the approach is one of caution.

The United States, backed by worried Russian neighbours or near-neighbours such as Poland and the Baltic nations, sees the conflict as yet another argument in favour of Georgia's NATO membership.

But another group led by France and Germany says it shows that their approach in dampening Georgia's membership aspirations was the right one.

"There is no acceleration or slow down on Georgia," one NATO diplomat said.

Moscow's action "could boost the camp that wants to give a MAP (Membership Action Plan) to Georgia to reinforce its territorial integrity and punish Russia," he said.

"But it will also encourage the others, those who remained prudent and say it is still too dangerous to engage in this direction," he said.

"We cannot play with Article 5," he warned.

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