Russian News  
Saakashvili to face tough questions over Georgia unrest: analysts

President Mikheil Saakashvili.
by Staff Writers
Tbilisi (AFP) Aug 12, 2008
When the dust settles in Georgia's ongoing conflict with Russia, President Mikheil Saakashvili will face some tough questions over his handling of the crisis, analysts say.

His hope to bring the ex-Soviet republic into NATO may also be under threat, a senior Western diplomat said, as sceptics will use the current crisis to argue Georgia is far from a good candidate for membership.

"This situation escalated the way it did because of miscalculations, especially on the part of Saakashvili," said Nick Grono, deputy president of the International Crisis Group, a think tank in Brussels.

"I don't know if they thought the international community and Russia would be occupied with the Olympics or what, but there was utter miscalculation," he said.

Georgia has long sought to regain control over the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Their loss during wars in the early 1990s dealt a heavy blow to the national psyche and Georgia's lack of control over its entire territory held it back, both economically and in its efforts to join NATO.

But analysts said Saakashvili's decision to send troops into South Ossetia, which Russia had always pledged to defend, may have been a critical mistake.

The decision was "not been a smart move" as Russia had been determined to provoke a war with Georgia over the rebel regions for months, said Svante Cornell, Deputy Director of the Central Asia Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Programme in Stockholm.

Tensions over the two rebel regions had soared in recent months after Moscow announced it was boosting ties with the separatists.

"I believe there'll be some damage as people question whether or not he needed to do the things he did," Cornell said.

A senior Western diplomat said the crisis may also have given ammunition to some within NATO who have opposed membership for Georgia. Opponents have said that with two unresolved conflicts on its territory, Georgia was not yet ready to join NATO.

A NATO summit earlier this year refused to give Georgia a Membership Action Plan (MAP), which would have put it on the fast track to membership. Georgia had been hoping that NATO members would reconsider the decision at a summit of foreign ministers in December.

"There are some people who are saying that now we should move faster (on membership)," the diplomat said. "But those who are sceptical will see this as another argument against NATO membership."

He agreed that some people will also be questioning "whether mistakes were made, whether they underestimated the power of the Russians."

Analysts said the most obvious and immediate impact of the conflict would be on Georgia's economy and infrastructure.

Until a week ago Georgia was seen as an oasis of economic reform in a desert of post-Soviet nepotism and corruption, and was on its way to becoming the darling of the international investment community.

Georgia's economic growth stood at more than 10 percent in 2006 and 2007, despite sanctions imposed by Moscow on key industries. Three five-star hotels are under construction in the centre of Tbilisi and Western-style boutiques and malls have mushroomed throughout the city.

But continued economic growth is now very much in doubt, analysts said.

"The Russians are destroying the infrastructure in parts of the country and that will cost millions to repair. Plus, there's a world economic crisis that will affect our eventual recovery," said Georgi Margvilashvili, an analyst at the Georgian Institute of Public Affairs. "On top of that, Russia will probably impose more economic sanctions to further hurt the Georgian economy."

Community
Email This Article
Comment On This Article

Share This Article With Planet Earth
del.icio.usdel.icio.us DiggDigg RedditReddit
YahooMyWebYahooMyWeb GoogleGoogle FacebookFacebook



Related Links

Russia-Georgia border awash with troops, militiamen, refugees
Nar, Russia (AFP) Aug 11, 2008
Riding in a dusty convoy of tanks and mobile missile launchers snaking through the mountains, Russian troops kept streaming into Georgia's rebel province of South Ossetia on Monday.







  • Pentagon confirms cancellation of naval exercise
  • US launches Georgia aid mission, mulls how to help the military
  • World lashes Russia over Georgia conflict
  • Russian jets stage Georgia raids as Moscow-US tensions worsen

  • US blacklists five Iranian entities citing nuclear, missile ties
  • New air force chiefs promise to raise nuclear standards
  • US against any Israeli strike on Iran: defence minister
  • Iran nuclear work will go on: Ahmadinejad

  • Analysis: Revolt in India rebel group ULFA
  • Analysis: India mulls new probe agency
  • Analysis: India eyes fake currency flow
  • Process On For Establishing Aerospace Command

  • China seen with more room to boost growth as inflation eases
  • Foreign direct investment in China up 44.5 percent
  • Trade surplus shrinks, inflation risk returns in China
  • Bush confident China's future to reflect universal aspirations

  • ACCIONA Launches 180 MW Tatanka Wind Farm
  • Air Products' Mobile Hydrogen Fueler Technology Supports Hydrogen Tour '08
  • Johnson Controls To Improve Energy Usage At Oak Ridge National Labs
  • Walker's World: $200 oil is coming

  • ISS Crew Inspired By Vision And Dreams Of Jules Verne
  • Space Station A Test-Bed For Future Space Exploration
  • Space chiefs ponder ISS transport problem, post-2015 future
  • Two Russian cosmonauts begin new space walk

  • Boeing Awarded E-6B Upgrade Contract
  • Defense Support Program Satellite Decommissioned
  • Raytheon Bids For USAF Command And Control Contract
  • Northrop Grumman Demonstrates Multi-Function Electronic Warfare System

  • Switzerland Puts Gripen To The Test
  • Boeing's Forst P-8A Poseidon Moves From Final Assembly To Preflight
  • QinetiQ Awarded DARPA Contract For New Sensor System
  • Sniper ATP-Equipped B-1B Has Combat First

  • The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2007 - SpaceDaily.AFP and UPI Wire Stories are copyright Agence France-Presse and United Press International. ESA Portal Reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. Advertising does not imply endorsement,agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by SpaceDaily on any Web page published or hosted by SpaceDaily. Privacy Statement