French President Nicolas Sarkozy, wearing his hat as head of the European Union's Council of Ministers, brokered a peace accord on Georgia, but the Russians have systematically broken, sidestepped or ignored it. Once again, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and his hard-line advisers had been confirmed in their view that the West, and particularly the Europeans, cared more about oil and gas supplies than about the rights of small nations.

It is an open question whether that will now change, with the oil price down below $70 a barrel, the Moscow stock market down 70 percent and many observers expecting Russia's economy to be one of the chief victims of the collapse in commodity prices.

Russia suddenly finds itself in a weak position, with capital flight running at about $5 billion a day in the last two weeks of October. Its top corporations have an accumulated debt to Western investors of around $500 billion and are being bailed out by the state, when Russia's own national foreign exchange reserves have just shrunk from $600 billion in July to around $450 billion now.

In January, the Czech Republic succeeds France in the rotating chairmanship of the EU's Council, the forum where the national governments meet. It is a job that lets the Czechs set Europe's agenda for the next six months, and since the Czechs know about living under Russian influence from ugly personal experience, their arrival is arousing some nervousness in Moscow.

The resumed talks on a new Partnership and Cooperation Agreement discuss a framework for harmonious trade and diplomatic relations that long has been delayed over Russia's objections to Europe's planned energy charter. The EU draft sought to establish a level playing field on energy, under which Russian corporate access to Western European oil and gas distribution systems would be balanced by similar European access to Russian energy supplies and markets.

The negotiations were going nowhere. Russia's legalized looting (through manipulation of tax and environmental codes) of the oil deals that Shell and BP thought they had under firm legal contract was a powerful reminder that the law in Russia is what the Kremlin wants it to be. So some European policymakers have been thinking again, most interestingly in a leaked internal paper prepared for Monday's EU foreign ministers meeting on EU-Russian relations.

"Disputes on terms of gas trade with Ukraine this year and developments in the investment climate of Russia's energy sector are a cause of growing concern," it says. "In spite of successive agreements reached by Russia and transit countries, there is no certainty which would preclude similar disruptions in future."

The 33-page assessment, "Key Outstanding Issues for the EU in Its Relations with Russia," runs through Russia's "pipeline monopolies" and its general "arbitrariness and lack of transparency" and warns that "limited Russian investment upstream, particularly by Gazprom, is also a cause of concern, with suggestions of future supply difficulties." In short, the Russians may not have enough energy to use as leverage over Europe.

The paper goes on to slam Russia for gouging European airlines with Siberian overflight fees, "unacceptable" levels of counterfeiting and piracy, deliberate obstruction in trade talks, and various forestry and fishing and farm trade maneuvers as "disguised trade restrictions aimed at protecting Russian domestic production."

It notes that Russia has not fulfilled its promises on the Georgia peace accords negotiated with Sarkozy and went on to condemn Russian policy in the Caucasus more broadly. "Stabilization is prevented by a climate of fear and impunity of human rights abusers," it charged. "There are still widespread reports of human rights abuses and reprisals against civilians, including enforced disappearances and cases of torture perpetrated notably by security forces."

But whatever the Czechs and other Eastern Europeans might say in warning about appeasing Russia, France and Germany are pushing for a return to business as usual with Moscow. At Monday's meeting, even the usually staunch British and Poles went along, and only Lithuania formally dissented. So Sarkozy's planned mini-summit with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in Nice will go ahead Friday and probably boost Sarkozy's hopes for a sweeping redrafting of global financial regulations at this weekend's financial summit in Washington.

"Europe should not be an accomplice in starting another Cold War," Sarkozy told the European Parliament last month. "Given the state of the world today, I don't believe the world needs a crisis between Europe and Russia. We can defend our differences, human rights, but it would be irresponsible to create the conditions for a conflict for which we have no need."

Maybe Sarkozy reckons that the EU can get better terms from a financially weakened Russia. If so, it could be a triumph of hope over experience. Despite the Georgian peace accord that Sarkozy brokered, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told his French counterpart that the EU monitors of the accord would not be allowed into Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the two breakaway provinces of Georgia.

"Security is assured by Russian military contingents, after the recognition of their independence by Russia," Lavrov told the French.

Let us hope the Georgians think, in the larger European and financial scheme of things, their sacrifice is worth it.

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