Despite this, China is still rumored to be interested in the Russian offer of Su-33 and Su-35 combat aircraft for use on Chinese aircraft carriers. However, there are also reportedly divisions within Russia over whether to meet Chinese requests for advanced Russian weapons systems. There are concerns that China will only buy limited numbers of such systems with a view to "copying" them.

Russia's caution is not unfounded. In 1996, China signaled its intention to buy around 200 Sukhoi Su-27SK kits for its J-11 combat aircraft program. In 2004, China revealed that only about 100 J-11 combat aircraft would be constructed from Su-27SK kits, as an increasing share of the components for its J-11 were being produced in China.

Then, in 2007, the first prototypes of the J-11B were unveiled, revealing a combat aircraft that bears a remarkable resemblance to the Su-27SMK, but for which a reported 90 per cent of components are Chinese. Some reports say that the J-11B will feature Chinese-produced weapons systems and a WS-10A engine.

Although the Chinese appear to have annulled the contract for the joint development of the J-11, Russian officials have not yet condemned this move. Yet China's behavior perhaps helps to explain Russia's October 2007 agreement with India for the joint development and production of a fifth generation combat aircraft.

Russia had also discussed the possibility of such a project with China, but October's announcement reinforces the impression that Russia is more willing to transfer its most advanced weapons systems (and possibly even technologies), to India rather than to China.

All these factors, combined with this year's decline in deliveries and orders, suggest that the slump in Russia's arms exports to China will not be temporary. Indeed, in Russia such a drop has been anticipated for some time, and Rosoboronexport and Russian officials have worked hard in recent years to secure alternative orders.

The head of the Russian government's Federal Service for Military and Technical Cooperation, Mikhail Dmitriev, announced in late December 2007 that Russia had an order portfolio for an estimated $32 billion worth of arms and military equipment, boosted by significant orders in recent years from Algeria, Indonesia and Venezuela. It remains to be seen, however, whether orders from these states can make up for the expected drop in orders and deliveries to China.

(Paul Holtom is a researcher for the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. This article is reprinted by permission of the RIA Novosti news agency. The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of the RIA Novosti news agency.)

(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited)

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